Comparison of the Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine 10 or Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine 13 on Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Equivalent Populations

Background Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine 10 (PCV10) and pneumococcal conjugate vaccine 13 (PCV13), are used in childhood immunization programs worldwide, but direct comparisons of impacts against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in equivalent populations have not been performed. We compared the vaccines (prevaccination 2007-2009 vs postvaccination 2013-2016) in Sweden, where the 21 counties use either PCV10 or PCV13 (introduced 2009-2010). Methods All IPD episodes (n = 16992) were recorded in Sweden during 2005-2016. Of 14 186 isolates from 2007-2016, 13 468 (94.9%) were characterized with serotyping and 12 235 (86.2%) with antibiotic susceptibility. Poisson models assessed changes in incidence over time. Results Invasive pneumococcal disease incidences decreased between 2005 and 2016 in vaccinated children (by 68.5%), and in the whole population (by 13.5%), but not among the elderly (increased by 2%) due to a substantial increase in nonvaccine types (NVTs). In 2016, NVTs constituted 72% of IPD cases in the elderly. Serotype 6A declined in PCV10 and PCV13 counties, whereas serotype 19A increased in PCV10 counties. There was no effect against serotype 3. Cross-protection was found between 6B and 6A but not between 19F and 19A. Serotype 6C increased in PCV10 counties, but not in PCV13 counties, suggesting cross-protection with 6A, which is included in PCV13. In the elderly, the increase in NVTs, excluding 6C, was more pronounced in PCV13 counties. Conclusions The overall impact of IPD incidences was not statistically different irrespective of vaccine used. The incidence of serotypes, where the effect of the vaccines differed, will influence the cost-effectiveness of which vaccine to use in immunization programs. The dominance of NVTs suggests a limited effect of current pediatric PCVs against IPD in the elderly.